Boston Consulting Group (BCG) experts Suresh Subudhi, managing director and senior partner, and Vasily Triandafilidi, director of BCG in Tashkent, told Gazeta.uz on 21 October 2026 what Uzbekistan needs to become an independent aviation hub. This is the view of consultants, not an approved government programme.
The market
According to the experts, Central Asia has become one of the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world. The number of flights to Uzbekistan has grown more than fourfold, and the market is growing about 16% a year, almost 2.5 times faster than GDP.
What a hub needs
An independent hub requires alignment between airlines, airports, the regulator and the state, as well as a shared master plan. A hub's advantage, they said, does not have to rest on cheap fuel: Istanbul builds its success on transit, where transit passengers account for about 40–50%.
The experts think airports should develop as economic platforms: cargo, MRO, duty-free retail, hotel and logistics infrastructure. As the national carrier's fleet grows, they said, a competitive MRO hub that serves other airlines can be built. Cargo will grow on the back of the passenger market, GDP per capita growth and e-commerce.
Fuel
High prices and shortages can lead to flight cuts, first on routes that were already marginal. The domestic share of jet fuel production is currently estimated at 40–50% and, according to industry estimates, could rise to 70–80% as output grows and capacity comes online. Hedging reduces price risk but does not solve physical shortage.
Domestic flights
The experts named price as the main constraint. A ticket costs about 25 days of an average Uzbek's earnings, compared with about four days in Kazakhstan and about one day in developed economies. For business travel, they said, daily frequency with morning and evening flights is needed: two or three flights a week are not enough. Turboprops on selected routes and convenient connections between domestic and international flights can help.
The experts cite two approaches to regional connectivity: subsidies, as in India's UDAN programme, and allowing low-cost carriers and small aircraft on routes with real demand. A benchmark: demand for air travel often accelerates at GDP per capita of USD 6,000–7,000. In Uzbekistan it is currently around USD 4,000, and at current growth rates that level could be reached in about 5–6 years. This is a benchmark, not a hard threshold.
Fifth freedom and PPPs
On fifth-freedom rights, the experts give no definitive answer and propose a separate analysis that takes into account national carriers' interests, tourist routes and predictability of rules for investors. On airport PPPs, they named typical mistakes: underestimating project cost and lacking scenarios for passenger traffic deviating in either direction. It is too early, they said, to assess Uzbekistan's projects in Samarkand and Urgench.
Our assessment: the interview sets a framework for discussion but does not replace decisions. The experts did not disclose specific projects, investments or calculation methodology. This is flycentralasia's conclusion, not a statement by BCG or the Uzbek authorities.
What businesses can do. MRO companies and lessors can assess hub potential as the national carrier's fleet grows. Airports and cargo operators can take into account the link between passenger growth and e-commerce. Airlines can check domestic flight plans against the price threshold and daily frequencies. PPP investors can build in scenarios for passenger traffic deviating from forecasts.