The combined aircraft fleet of Kazakhstan, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus will grow from 383 to 684 aircraft by 2030 — a 78.6% increase, or 301 additional aircraft, according to AIFC's report "Aviation Finance in Kazakhstan and Central Asia: Global Trends and the Role of the AIFC."
Kazakhstan shows the largest absolute growth (109→221, +112 aircraft), while Tajikistan shows the largest relative growth (10→25, +150%). Uzbekistan ranks as the region's second major growth center (105→180).
Behind these figures lies a question the AIFC report tries to answer not in terms of aircraft count, but financing instruments: the region must close the delivery gap for hundreds of aircraft primarily through operating leases, since most Central Asian carriers lack balance sheets sufficient for outright purchases.
AIFC positions itself as an emerging regional aviation finance hub — built on English Common Law, accession to the Cape Town Convention, and an IDERA regime (the right to deregister and export an aircraft), which reduces risk for lessors and simplifies asset recovery on default.
Early practical examples already exist: AIFC's Aviation Finance Hub supported the first leasing transaction of new Kazakh cargo carrier Jupiter Jet with a U.S. lessor. However, no systemic mechanism yet exists to close the region's full 301-aircraft gap — the AIFC forecast remains an industry benchmark rather than a guaranteed scenario.
Open questions worth independent verification include: whether official country fleet forecasts align with individual airlines' own plans (for Kazakhstan, for instance, AIFC's 221-aircraft forecast is notably higher than the 160-aircraft figure cited in a government review); what share of the 301 aircraft will come through operating leases versus outright purchases; and whether the region will develop its own leasing structures rather than remaining dependent on foreign lessors.